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Prediction for CME (2019-05-11T02:39:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2019-05-11T02:39Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/14737/-1
CME Note: The source of this signature is somewhat unclear. It could be associated with the arrival of a combination of 2 CMEs that started on 2019-05-10T19:09Z and 2019-05-11T02:39Z. From Dr. Lan Jian: The flux ropes separated by sharp boundaries could be due to the interaction of multiple CMEs. From the in-situ observations and Enlil modeling results, Earth was in the rarefaction before the CME arrived, this may be why the CMEs reached Earth so fast.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2019-05-13T22:06Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-05-14T10:01Z
Prediction Method: CAT-PUMA
Prediction Method Note:

This is a prediction for the CME at 2019-05-11T04:36
The angular width for the CME at 2019-05-11T00:00 is too small for CAT-PUMA to make a prediction.

CME Parameters from SOHO LASCO C2 (too faint in C3):
Onset time: 2019-05-11T04:36
Angular width: 127.6
Average speed: 163.4 km/s
Final speed: 178.9 km/s
Mass: 3.90e15 g (average value from the model)
MPA: 327.3

Solar Wind Parameters from DSCOVR Spacecraft:
Bz: -7.355 nT
Alpha-Proton Ratio: 0.041  # No observation, use average value in the model
Flow Speed: 359.450 km/s
Flow Latitude: -0.214
Pressure: 0.747 nPa
Flow Longitude: 3.971
Bx:  1.650 nT
Temperature: 27359.303 K

Lead Time: 2.77 hour(s)
Difference: -11.92 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Jiajia Liu (QUB) on 2019-05-13T19:20Z

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